Wage Growth

Bank of Japan

2026-09-08 03:13:32

Japan’s July wage growth hits fastest pace since 1997, reinforcing BOJ rate-hike bets

Japan’s Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare reported that nominal wages in July rose 4.7% from a year earlier, the strongest increase since January 1997 and above economists’ 3.8% forecast. Average nominal pay reached ¥436,401, or about $2,800, while real wages, adjusted for inflation and excluding rent, climbed 2.4%, marking a seventh straight month of gains and the biggest rise in roughly five years. Base pay increased 4.1%, the quickest pace since April 1992, and real wages for full-time employees, excluding bonuses, overtime and sampling distortions, rose 2.7%. The figures have strengthened expectations that the Bank of Japan could raise rates at its Sept. 17-18 meeting. The BOJ’s policy rate is currently 1.0%. At its July 31 meeting, the board voted 8-1 to keep rates unchanged, with board member Hajime Takata casting the lone dissent in favor of lifting the rate directly to 1.25%. Market pricing now largely reflects a 25-basis-point increase this month, with cumulative tightening of about 75 basis points priced in through April 2027. For crypto investors, the report points to the risk of yen carry-trade unwinds. If BOJ tightening lifts funding costs and strengthens the yen, leveraged positions in U.S. Treasuries, tech stocks and Bitcoin could come under pressure. Because crypto trades around the clock and reacts quickly to liquidity shifts, it is often one of the first areas hit when carry positions are cut.

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nonfarm payro

2026-09-04 08:15:36

August Nonfarm Payrolls Preview: Weak Employment Continues, Only Major Surprise Could Affect Fed Decision

The U.S. August nonfarm payrolls report is set to be released tonight, with the market expecting an addition of 56,000 jobs, following a surprise decline of 23,000 in July. The unemployment rate is forecast to hold at 4.1%, while annual wage growth may slow to 3%. Morgan Stanley's chief economist Michael Gapen estimates that the revocation of Temporary Protected Status for Haitian immigrants could reduce payrolls by about 15,000, though gains in local government education, leisure, and hospitality sectors may provide support. Most economists believe that unless the data shows a major surprise, the report is unlikely to directly determine the Fed's rate decision at its September 15-16 meeting, with attention turning to next week's CPI. Fed Governor Christopher Waller indicated on Thursday that he would favor holding rates steady this month if upcoming data confirms cooling inflation. The market now sees a 50% probability of a rate hike in September, down from 63.2% on Wednesday.

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United States

2026-08-14 16:00:11

Bessent says U.S. core inflation has fallen to 2.5%

U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said core inflation in the United States has fallen to 2.5%, while wages for the bottom 25% of workers rose 5.5% over the past year. He said the figures point to an improving labor market, with wage growth for lower-income workers running ahead of inflation. The remarks came as markets watch the direction of Federal Reserve policy, and real wage growth may help support consumer spending.

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U.S. Treasury

2026-08-07 03:19:10

Bessent says U.S. wage growth continues to outpace inflation

U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said wage growth in the United States is currently running ahead of inflation, with lower-income groups seeing the fastest income gains. The remarks point to labor market conditions during President Donald Trump’s term and highlight an improvement in purchasing power among lower- and middle-income households. Because Bessent leads the Treasury Department, his comments on the economy are often watched by markets as a signal for the broader macro policy backdrop. The update was cited by Techub, with Cointelegraph referenced as the source.

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